株と釣り

マーク・ファーバーのコメント

Marc Faber appeared on Bloomberg Television yesterday to discuss the Chinese economy. While Faber generally seems to be a long-term bull on China, he had some disquieting things to say about the extent of malinvestment in China due to the recent round of government stimulus and infrastructure-oriented investment.

Faber told Trish Regan and Matt Miller "I think that we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated....if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China's trading partners are reporting."

He said, "There's lots of funny things that are happening in China. And when the whole thing unwinds it will be a disaster."

His view is that the trade figures out of China do not correspond with the aggregated trade figures coming out of China's trade partners. He believes the economy has slowed markedly and that GDP growth is more in the 4% region than the 7.5% region.

ジョージ・ソロスも中国が世界経済の最大リスクとしており、中国の今の政策が矛盾していると指摘。

中国内で最近頻発するテロ・騒動も民衆の不満の高まりを示すものであり、筆者は中国が将来自己瓦解すると思う。

その時、日本も相当に被害を被る筈であり、日本経済にとっても大きなマイナスとなるであろうし、株式市場も所謂チャイナ・ショックで大きな下げを見ると想定する。