かみぽこぽこ。

Hong Kong's Agnes Chow Ting and others' arrests imply the miserable end of the Chinese Communist Party

(Japanese original version is posted to Diamond Online on August 14, 2020)

Masato Kamikubo,

Professor of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University

Abstract

China's crackdown on Hong Kong's pro-democracy forces under the Hong Kong National
Security Law appears to be terrorizing the world. However, the author argues that China is
cornered by a series of failures that began with the Umbrella Revolution in 2014.

Agnes Chow Ting, the "Goddess of Democracy," was arrested on suspicion of violating the Hong Kong National Security Act.

On August 10, Hong Kong police arrested Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, founder of the media group that publishes the pro-democracy Hong Kong newspaper Apple Daily, as well as seven
executives from the paper, and Agnes Chow Ting, a spokeswoman for the Umbrella
Revolution, on suspicion of violating the Hong Kong National Security Maintenance Law.

Jimmy, Agnes and others were released on bail in the midnight on April 11 and were
interviewed by reporters. Agnes said, "It's clearly a political oppression. The arrests are so
ridiculous. I don't know why I was arrested." "This arrest was really scary, and this was the
most serious charge out of the four times I was arrested." She also expressed her
determination to continue to fight for democracy and freedom in Hong Kong, saying, "The
lyrics of the song "Fukyowaon (Discordance)" by Keyakizaka 46, which says that I will
continue to resist until the very end, were in my head the whole time I was detained.

The suppression of democracy by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through the
enforcement of the "Hong Kong National Security Law" appears to have terrified not only
Hong Kong, but the rest of the world. However, But this paper argues that the CCP and Hong Kong government has been driven by a series of failures, and as a result has been forced to
adopt barbaric methods that are not "civilized".

Agnes spoke to me about the "Theory of AKB 48 General Election" and the affirmation of the means of violence.

In December 2016, when Agnes gave lecture at the College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, she said to the students, “I like a Keyakizaka 46’s song Silent Majority.” "Be
courageous and speak up. Don't become the silent majority".

The exchange between Agnes and us began in September 2015, a year after the "Umbrella
Revolution. When we first met her, Agnes told us, “the Hong Kong election was like the
general election for the AKB 48, and just as Mr. Akimoto Yasushi actually decides
everything in the AKB 48 general election, the CC decides everything in the Hong Kong
election.” In addition, she argued that in Hong Kong, where there are no fair elections, it is acceptable to use violence to win democracy.

Then, we visited Hong Kong in September 2016 and September 2017 to meet with Agnes. At the time of our 2017 visit, she had formed the Demosisto (dissolved in June 2020 following
the enactment of the Hong Kong National Security Law) and was the Secretary General. We interviewed Ms. Agnes about Hong Kong's social security policies. At that time, Agnes did
not mention the "affirmation of violence". She argued that Hong Kong's social security
policies gave preferential treatment to large foreign companies and were not equal. She
seemed to be evolving from an “activist” to a “politician”.

In January 2020, Hong Kong and Ritsumeikan University's Osaka Ibaragi campus were
connected via the Internet to hold Agnes’ online lectures and debates with students. This
was an effort to use technology to overcome the CCP and Hong Kong government's attempt
to suppress free speech by banning Agnes' visit to Japan.

Agnes spoke in Japanese for about 30 minutes and held an online debate with students for
about 90 minutes. She has never spoken so fully about her idea in Japanese. This video is a
valuable record of her talk.

As Agnes herself has sometimes expressed her frustration, the Japanese mass media often cut out parts of what she said and report it, which can make it difficult to convey her true
intentions. However, this video has everything she wants to say to the Japanese people.
Please watch it.

The CCP's 'failure' dates back to the end of the Umbrella Revolution

Through our interactions with Agnes, the author thinks that the CCP and the Hong Kong
government, have repeated failures and finally had no choice but to take the hard line
approach of the "Hong Kong National Security Law".

In fact, the CCP's "failures" began when the "Umbrella Revolution" ended in 2014. The first mistake made by the CCP was to exclude Hong Kong's pro-democracy youth, who had
aspirations to become politicians, from parliament and return them to "activism".

In April 2016, core members of the movement, including Agnes, Nathan Law and Joshua
Wong, formed a new party, the Demosisto. They said, “we could not change the electoral
system through demonstrations. However, if we wanted to decide the future for ourselves,
we should form a political party for youth.

In the September 4, 2016 Hong Kong Legislative Assembly (Hong Kong Parliament)
elections, Nathan became the youngest ever elected at the age of 23, and the young democrat won six seats in the legislature. However, eight Democrat lawmakers, including Nathan,
were disqualified from sitting in the Legislature on the grounds that they had said or done
something insulting to China. Agnes also attempted to run for the 2018 election to fill a
vacant seat in the Hong Kong Legislative Council, but her candidacy was blocked by the
authorities.

In addition, the exclusion of Hong Kong's "pro-democracy" and "pro-self-determination"
youths from parliament by equating them with "independence" was a failure of the CCP.
There is a misconception that democrats/self-determination groups and independence groups are the same. The pro-democracy camp aspires to protect Hong Kong's democracy through
"one country, two systems". Among them, the self-determination camp insists on maintaining
democracy even after 2047, 50 years after Hong Kong's return. But they are not advocating
for Hong Kong's independence.

In short, Hong Kong's young people had become "politicians" who wanted to democratically enact policy in Parliament. If they hadn't been kicked out of Parliament, the Hong Kong
government could have had a more constructive discussion with them about the proposed
amendments to the extradition law. That is something that Japanese politics could have done as a matter of course.

As a result of the failure of the amendment of extradition law, criticism of CCP vis
spreading to the international community.

In June 2019, there were massive protests in Hong Kong, attended by young people, over a
proposed amendment to the extradition law that would allow for the extradition of suspects
to mainland China. The CCP and the Hong Kong government have made a a series of
failures. First, the amendment to the extradition law was poorly timed.

It was a mistake to submit the draft amendment to the Hong Kong Legislative Council at a
time when China was in the midst of a "trade war" with the United States. It gave the US,
which had been digging for materials to attack China, an easy target to attack.

As the demonstrations began in Hong Kong, the U.S. Congress criticized the amendment as a threat to Hong Kong's governance and warned that the U.S. might consider sanctions if
China intervened directly in the protests or otherwise.

Criticism of China has not only spread to the United States, but also to the international
community, including Canada and the European Union (EU). Since many Western
companies are based in Hong Kong and the safety of their own citizens and corporate
interests are at risk, Western countries were forced to criticize the proposed amendment to
the extradition law.

The emerging nations have gradually changed their views of China. The "One Belt, One
Road" plan that China has been promoting has begun to be criticized as a "debt trap" that
lures developing countries into loans with predatory terms, using questionable projects as
bait.

For example, Sri Lanka was unable to repay China for the construction of Hambantota Port, a strategic port in the Indian Ocean, and the port was loaned to Chinese companies for 99
years. There has been alarm from the United States, Europe, and elsewhere about these cases of countries that have received loans from China giving up their real assets to repay the
loans.

Some countries are also beginning to review projects with China. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad announced the cancellation of a planned high-speed rail
project on the east coast of the Malay Peninsula, claiming that the cost was too high. He has
then renegotiated with China to extract concessions and restart the project. Indonesia has also expressed alarm, saying that its debt to China has increased by $5 billion between 2014 and
2018.

China has been growing so rapidly that it threatens the hegemony of the United States. China has seemed to slap many countries around the world in the cheek with a wad of cash. There was a time when criticism of China was, in a sense, a taboo, but since Donald Trump took
office as president of the United States, it has become easier to criticize China. China has
misread the changing atmosphere in the international community around it.

The Chinese Communist Party, which is supposed to "never fail," has made a painful
blunder.

The youth demonstrations were very sophisticated compared to the "Umbrella Revolution" in 2014. It can be pointed out that the youth had learned a lot from the "failure" of the Umbrella Revolution and were able to build on this demonstration's success. This troubled the CCP and the Hong Kong government.

Firstly, the young people participating in the demonstration took thorough measures to
prevent their identification. By exchanging information through the use of Telegram, a
communication app for mobile phones created by the Russians, the youths were able to take common measures to fend off police from tracking them down.

The leaders were not outed because their activities are based on the exchange of information and networking through communication apps. This was a lesson learned from the Umbrella Revolution, in which a student leader was arrested and sentenced to prison for a vague
charge of "disturbing public order or inciting people to do so". As a result, the Hong Kong
government didn't know who it was negotiating with. The Hong Kong government failed to
seize the opportunity to settle the situation. It allowed the protests to grow.

In addition, various "maneuvers" were set up to make the protests a success. Agnes, who is
known worldwide, held press conferences and symposia in Japan, while Joshua held press
conferences and symposia in the United States and Germany to appeal to international public opinion.

It is said that the new leaders of the "post-umbrella generation" are in charge of the
demonstrations, but we don't know who they are. On the other hand, the generation of the
Umbrella Revolution, with its high profile and arrest record, is not afraid of the authorities.
They had a role to play in actively speaking out and arousing public opinion.

The CCP, which is supposed to never concede, has hurriedly instructed the Hong Kong
government to postpone deliberation of the proposed amendment to the extradition law. It
was an unprecedented "concession" under the rule of Chairman Xi Jinping. It exposed the
"too painful failure" at home and abroad.

A protester, a high school student, was temporarily in critical condition after being shot by police.

On October 1, the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China's founding, tens of
thousands of protesters erupted in Hong Kong. After violent clashes with police, the police
finally opened fire on the protesters. A high school student was temporarily in critical
condition after being shot in the left chest.

A video of a police officer firing at close range and knocking down a high school student
who was hit by a bullet was released on the Internet. It was reported by CNN, the BBC and
various other media outlets. The Hong Kong police and the CCP were condemned by the
world.

The shots fired at this high school student were aimed at his left chest at close range. This
cannot be said to have been accidental. It is speculated that the officer had been instructed to "kill even a child. This would have exposed the world to the fact that the People's Republic
of China is a country that lets the police shoot children.

Historic Victory for Democrats in Hong Kong's Local Council Elections

In November 2019, the Hong Kong District Council elections were held. Although the
election was likely to be cancelled due to an escalating confrontation between protesters and the Hong Kong police, there was no major disruption on the day. Voter turnout reached 71%, far higher than the 47% in the previous election in 2015 and the highest in any election held after Hong Kong's return to China.

The Democrats won a historic victory, winning 390 seats, almost 90% of the 452 seats. This
is the first time the Democrats have won a majority of seats in the legislature, a complete
reversal of the position of the pro-China faction, which had held 70 percent of the seats
before the election. The Democrats reiterated their demand for the implementation of the
"five major demands " and announced that they would continue their protests.

[Five major demands]

(1) Full withdrawal of the proposed amendment to the extradition law (formally withdrawn
by the Hong Kong government in October 2019)

(2) Rescinding the Hong Kong government's view that the demonstration was a "riot".

(3) Establishment of an independent commission of inquiry into police violence against
protesters

(4) Release of all detained and arrested protesters

(5) Conducting ordinary elections for executive director and legislative elections.

The CCP seemed to think that the "pro-China faction" was actually the "silent majority" and
that the "pro-China faction" would win the election, despite the loudest democratic voices.
But that outlook was not correct.

U.S. Congress pressures China to pass "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill

Furthermore, in response to the continued violence against protesters by the authorities in
Hong Kong, the U.S. Congress passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
The law provides that the U.S. State Department will check once a year to ensure that Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" are guaranteed and that Hong Kong's "very high degree
of autonomy" is maintained. It also provides for a review of the appropriateness of the U.S.
granting Hong Kong the "special status" of trade preferences.

If human rights abuses or other violations occur in Hong Kong, those responsible would be
subject to sanctions, including a ban on U.S. entry and an asset freeze. If trade preferences
are removed, Hong Kong would be treated the same as a mainland Chinese city.

This has been a huge blow to China's economy, which is in a slump, because approximately 70 percent of China's inward and outward foreign direct investment comes through Hong
Kong. This is also because a large portion of Chinese companies' funding has been raised in Hong Kong.

U.S. 'Hong Kong Autonomy Act' puts China in two stages of difficulty

In June 2020, China's National People's Congress adopted the Hong Kong National Security Law, which took effect immediately. In response, the United States passed the Hong Kong
Autonomy Law, which provided for sanctions against Chinese officials and institutions
involved in the suppression of Hong Kong's autonomy.

The Hong Kong Autonomy Act consists of two steps: imposing sanctions on persons and
entities that violate Hong Kong's freedoms and autonomy granted under the "One Country,
Two Systems" and barring financial institutions that do business with such individuals and
entities from the U.S. dollar settlement system.

The sanctions against individuals and organizations are the suspension of the issuance of
visas to enter the United States and the freezing of assets located in the United States.
Chinese government officials have real estate and other assets in the U.S. and have allowed
their children to study in the United States. This is a huge blow to Chinese Communist Party officials.

The second level of sanctions that bar financial institutions from dollar settlement include
prohibitions on loans, auctions of U.S. Treasuries, foreign exchange transactions, and trade
settlements from U.S. financial institutions; bans on the movement of assets; restrictions on
the export of goods, software, and technology; and the deportation of executives. In
particular, the ban on foreign exchange transactions and trade settlements prohibits dollar
settlement, which means expulsion from the dollar financial system. Since dollar
settlements still account for the majority of global trade and investment, the ban is a "death
sentence" for companies.

The U.S. has also excluded products of Chinese telecommunications equipment giant
Huawei from its equipment for fifth-generation mobile communications systems (5G)
networks. In addition, the United States made clear for the first time its position on the issue of territorial rights in the South China Sea, supporting countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam that dispute maritime rights with China and denying China's claims in its entirety.

Anger against China is spreading around the world. The UK has decided to exclude Huawei  from its facilities for 5G communication networks, as has the US. In a speech to the House of Commons, Prime Minister Boris Johnson also criticized the National Security Act for
violating the Joint Declaration signed by Britain and China in 1984, and announced his
intention to allow some 3 million Hong Kong citizens to move to the UK.

Furthermore, there is a steady movement to decouple Chinese advanced technology
companies, mainly through the Five Eyes, a framework for sharing confidential information between the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, by
shutting out foreign companies that do business with Chinese companies such as Huawei,
ZTE, and Hike Vision.

Why didn't China even have a place to talk to the young people of Hong Kong
Democracy?

In short, the response of the Chinese Communist Party and the Hong Kong government to
the protests in Hong Kong has been a series of failures to date. As a result, it has completely hardened the United States, and anger and wariness against China has spread around the
world, especially among U.S. allies.

The CCP failed to deal with a problem that would not be so difficult to deal with in a liberal democratic system of the country. In a liberal democratic system, the debate would shift the
stage of discussion to parliament, and the core members of the demonstrations could legally participate in parliament. Ultimately, the debate would become an electoral issue to be settled on the merits of the issue. In our society, this is something that can be resolved through
normal processes.

However, the authoritarian regime of the CCP cannot have even that “normal process”. That's because the CCP is based on the basic premise of infallibility, which is that the CCP can
never get it wrong.

If the CCP compromises even one thing in discussion with the youth, it would mean a
"defeat" that would destroy the infallibility of the CCP. Once the CCP is defeated, its
authority collapses. That's why they couldn't even provide a place to discuss with the young people.

Hence, the CCP-Hong Kong Government Office stuck up against the youth demonstrations.
In the end, they were only able to suppress the young people through the Hong Kong
National Security Law, a barbaric method of human rights violations that is not a "civilized" country.

Even if authoritarian regimes threaten people with violence, in the global age, the world will continue to look hard at them. Those who have learned to be free will never give up. The
authoritarian regimes are powerless to restrain them.

I want to appeal to Ms. Agnes and the people of Hong Kong that freedom will triumph in the end, even if it takes a long time. This is something that has been proven in the history of all
ages.