我思う、ゆえに我あり

今日の自衛隊の南西諸島での離島奪還演習についてインタビューを受けたので、転載します。

1) By demonstrating to China that Japan has the will and the capability to defend the Nansei Islands, will this exercise actually serve to deter China or will it simply raise tensions between the two countries?

-> Well, it is hard to assure this will really deter China, but it will send a message to China that Japan is not happy with the recent Chinese naval actions.

The basic concept here is that China has a concept of First Island Chain, which it wants to take command of. This chain runs from Kyushu of Japan, along Nansei islands, down to east of Taiwan and cover entire South China Sea. Taiwan is shifting its strategy to be integrated, at least now economically. Along with the rise of its naval power, and recent discussion of Marines leaving Okinawa, China is encouraged with this to pursue its claim of the chain. At this moment, Chinese governmental official has told the US not to interfere in South China Sea.

Thus, this makes Japan nervous, as Nansei islands are at the border of the chain, although so far, the Chinese have not made a similar comments on East China Sea yet.

At this moment, China would not likely to prefer two fronts, South China Sea and East China Sea at the same time, so China may comment it doesn't like the Japanese military exercise, but I see little chance Beijing will make this a big issue, but will probably keep annoying Japan with its naval activities in East China Sea.

2) What is the risk here in terms of the extended territorial disputes involving the Nansei Islands, the Senkaku Islands and Takeshima? Will this exercise upset other Asian countries besides China?

-> Due to the reason above, I don't think this will spill over to Takeshima issue.

3) What has been the role of the new National Defense Program Guidelines in this situation? Did Japan's military stance shifted dramatically once this new document emerged?

-> It is true that it will be the first guideline to mention that, but the white paper has warned about the rising Chinese capabilities for decades, and Japan has been looking for a right timing to take action. Due to the Cheonan incident, the US, the ROK, and the PRC all made military exercise around Japan, so Tokyo found a right moment to announce this exercise.

4) What about the involvement of US forces in this exercise? How does this play to a Japanese audience at a time when Japan is attempting to orchestrate a realignment of US forces?

-> Of course, the US will also need to show its presence to show solidarity and increase credibility, just as it did with the ASEAN regarding South China Sea. The Japanese audience notice the Chinese naval activities, so they shouldn't think the government is doing something outrageous, but might worry about Sino-Japan relations, depending on the Chinese reaction, a good gesture that the US and Japan are showing solidarity.