Walk in the Spirit

先ほど､FEDのチャートをInfoBunchさんから紹介頂いた､

次に､

実際に市中へ流れるサプライマネーの前年度伸びのトレンド､

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=MZM&s[1][transformation]=pc1

 FRBから銀行へのベースマネーは､緊縮しつつあるにも関わらず､マーケットへのマネーは拡大している､これをドウ見るか､

以下､今日のNakedCapitalismから推察する､

Deflation Watch: US Short Term Rates Fall Below Japan's  Thursday, March 20, 2008

Investors are so nervous that they are willing to take almost nothing in nominal terms, which is tantamount to a meaningful negative real return, to sit in the safety of three-month T-bills, which are now a mere 0.56%.
(投資家はもはや積極的にリスクを取ろうナド考えない､これが下記3ヶ月モノ国債の利回りに表れる､(3/20現在USA国債利回りは0.47%まで低下))

 
http://bp3.blogger.com/_rWY3qGfe6gc/R-IVs-84ePI/AAAAAAAAAJM/yLc1iDLqWbQ/s1600-h/Unknown.gif

Not only is this the lowest level the rate has achieved since 1958, but as reader James Bianco of Bianco Research tells us, it puts US short rates below Japan's for the first time since 1993 (click to enlarge):
(1958年以来の最低利回り､ しかも日本の国債と昨日､ついに逆転した､)

Bloomberg gave further commentary
(ブルームバーグいわく､)
 
"There's a whole flight-to-quality trade," said Joe Tully, managing director of the money-market desk in Newark, New Jersey, at Prudential Investment Management, who's betting $1 against a colleague that bill rates won't fall below zero. ``The markets are totally skittish. They just want to be in bills.''....

"It's a capital preservation trade," said Michael Cloherty, an interest-rate strategist at Banc of America Securities LLC in New York. "The rationale is, `I'll buy a bill, I know that when the thing matures I'll get 100 cents on the dollar.'''
(今の取引は､flight-to-quality tradeになっていると､ 又の名をcapital preservation trade､ そう､利益狙いよりも持分の資産の目減りを防ぐためのトレードになっているのだと､)

上の3ヶ月モノUS国債の利回りチャート､

昨日､ついに日本の国債利回りと逆転してしまった､
しかも1958年来の低金利､

 
http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

これが今のマネーの動きの本質ではないだろうか､

マネーがモノ資産から､価値の劣化を避けて逃げ出す､
これが､"flight-to-quality"､

市場はすでにデフレを読んでいる､と見た､