じょん・どー　PhDをMSUで!?　の道のり

某テストの話。

論理力をみる作文テストのひとつに
「書かれてある主張がどのように論理的かを解説する」

・・・というよりも、
「書かれている主張の欠陥を指摘し、どこを強化すればましになるか叩く」

みたいなのを書かせるテストがあるのだけど・・・


これが楽しい。（悪趣味）

「この議論は筆者の思い込みに依存しすぎており・・・」
「よって議論に飛躍がうまれ・・・」
「まったくもって説得的でない！」

とか書くの。
厳しい赤ペン先生になった気分。


って、例がないと分からないな。

手元の例題のほうが楽しいのだけど、著作権とか怖いので
とりあえずネットに転がってたのを転載してみるね。


例によって日本語訳つけず、すまん（めんどう）。


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Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.


The following appeared in a memo from the sales director of Aura Cosmetics Company:

"The best way to reverse Aura Cosmetic's recent decline in profitability is to require each new employee in Aura's sales division to enroll in the popular SureSale seminar. Last year, the software company TechAide began incorporating SureSale's week-long seminar into its training program for all new sales employees, and since that time TechAide's total sales have increased dramatically. Also, according to a recent article in a reputable business magazine, the SureSale sales system has been widely adopted among the nation's twenty largest companies, and the employee turnover rate at these companies is lower today than five years ago. Therefore, by enrolling Aura sales employees in the SureSale seminar Aura will also retain its highest caliber salespeople."

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どこがおかしいか、それぞれで考えてみよー！


・・・と思ったけど、せっかく解答例も例題についてたので、コピペだけしておこう。
これまた訳さないので気の向いた方だけどうぞ。


---
In this argument Aura's sales director relies on certain anecdotal evidence about one other company, as well as on certain statistics about general trends among large companies, to convince us of the merits of enrolling certain ABC employees in the SureSale seminar. Close inspection of this evidence reveals, however, that it provides scant support at best for the director's argument.

Turning first to the anecdotal evidence, the director assumes too hastily that the SureSale seminar, rather than some other phenomenon, was responsible for the increase in TechAide's total sales. Perhaps the increase simply reflected general economic or supply-demand trends, or a misstep on the part of TechAide's chief competitor. For that matter, perhaps the increase is attributable to certain TechAide salespeople who are not new employees and who did not take the seminar. Without eliminating these and other plausible explanations for the increase in sales at TechAide, the director cannot convince me that the SureSale seminar was responsible for the increase, let alone that it would also enhance sales at Aura.

Even if TechAide's sales increase is attributable to SureSale, the director's argument rests on the additional assumption that the seminar would provide a similar benefit at Aura. However, the memo fails to account for possible differences between Aura and TechAide that might have a bearing on the seminar's effectiveness. For example, perhaps the SureSale system is effective for companies that provide services and/or are technology-oriented, but ineffective for companies such as Aura that offer traditional products. If so, the memo's recommendation would be indefensible, at least based on TechAide's experience.

Turning to the memo's statistics about the largest twenty companies, the director fails to account for any possible cause of the decline in employee turnover other than the SureSale method. Even if SureSale deserves credit for this decline, it is unreasonable to conclude on this basis that Aura would benefit similarly by adopting the SureSale method. The increase in employee turnover at Aura might be due to certain factors, such as working conditions, that would remain unaffected by the seminar. If so, then the proposed course of action might not suffice to retain Aura's best salespeople.

Finally, even assuming the SureSale seminar would serve to enhance Aura's profitability and reduce its employee turnover, the director has not convinced me that the proposed course of action is a necessary means toward these ends. Perhaps some other sales seminar, or certain cost-cutting measures, would prove more effective in enhancing Aura's profitability. By the same token, perhaps some other course of action -- such as revising Aura's personnel policies or work environment -- would be more effective in reducing employee turnover.

In sum, as it stands the director's argument is weak. To strengthen it the director should provide statistical evidence showing that companies similar to Aura that have adopted the SureSale program have tended to benefit from it, both in terms of profitability and employee turnover. To better assess the argument, it would be useful to compare the proven benefits of the SureSale seminar to those of similar seminars. It would also be useful to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of alternative courses of action, including various revenue-enhancing as well as cost-cutting measures.

---

ね？

Aura's sales director relies on certain anecdotal evidence about one other company.

In sum, as it stands the director's argument is weak.

とかバッサリ。なんてキモチイイ。
めずらしくテストに快感を感じてしまう瞬間であるよ。


しかし、こーゆー

「もっともらしい主張・議論の流れに穴を探させてケチをつけさせるテスト」、
発想がなんというか、アメリカ的だよなあ・・・とか思ったりして。