S&Pのドイツ格下げ警告のFT報道は、すっぱ抜き情報
NYは午後2時前、急落。↓ ドイツ格下げ警告2011-12-06(火)日本時間で午前3時から4時のドラマ。NY時間、午後1時55分ぐらいから急落。ダウは+140から一気に+80まで下落。英FT紙が「S&Pが。。欧州の。。。格下げ警告」といった報道を出したためとか。 詳細不明。明日になればわかるでしょう。 今、見てみました。これはドギツイ。FT電子板の1面ですね。ドイツ、フランス、オランダ、オーストリア、フィンランド、ルクセンブルグの名前が出てますね。ユーロ急落。欧州の国債金利また上昇開始。 S&P ratings warning to top euro nations Germany and five other triple A countries put on notice -------------------------------------------------FTオリジナル記事:December 5, 2011 6:29 pmS&P ratings warning to top euro nationsBy FT reportersStandard and Poor's has warned Germany and the five other triple A members of the eurozone that they risk having their top-notch ratings downgraded as a result of deepening economic and political turmoil in the single currency bloc. The US ratings agency is poised to announce later on Monday that it is putting Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Luxembourg on "creditwatch negative", meaning there is a one-in-two chance of a downgrade within 90 days.It warned all six governments that their ratings could be lowered to AA+ if the creditwatch review failed to convince its experts. Markets have been braced for a potential downgrade of France but few expected Germany's top rating to be called into question.With regard to Germany, S&P said it was worried about "the potential impact (...) of what we view as deepening political, financial, and monetary problems with the European economic and monetary union." The agency is moving as eurozone governments make further progress towards a comprehensive deal to contain the region's sovereign debate crisis ahead of a crucial EU summit on December 9. Berlin and Paris want the eurozone to sign up to tougher fiscal rules to calm investors' worries. S&P told the six governments it would conclude its review "as soon as possible" after the summit. It told governments: "[I]t is our opinion that the lack of progress the European policymakers have so far made in controlling the spread of the financial crisis may reflect structural weaknesses in the decision-making process within the eurozone and European Union." S&P's move, coming at such a sensitive stage in negotiations, is likely to spark further recriminations after repeated political criticism about how ratings agencies have behaved during the crisis. They stand accused by many politicians of deepening the crisis and are facing stringent new regulation. But rating agencies are worried about who will pick up the bill for any eurozone solution with many plans likely to increase the strain on the triple A countries.Governments worry a downgrade would make it harder for the eurozone bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to raise financing in the markets for its rescue packages of Ireland, Portugal and Greece as it is underpinned by guarantees from the six nations rated triple A . Those countries also fret that it could raise their own financing costs. Any downgrading would further diminish the number of top-rated countries after S&P cut the US earlier this summer, although it saw its borrowing costs fall on the move as investors are desperate for top-rated paper. S&P said in a draft statement it would look at both the political and monetary scores of a country. On the former, it said: "The overall consistency, predictability, and effectiveness of policy co-ordination among institutions within the eurozone has weakened at a time of severe ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than envisioned." On the monetary score, it said it would look at the European Central Bank's policy. "If we were to conclude that the ECB's policy stance is unlikely to be effective in mitigating the economic and financial shocks that we believe Germany could be experiencing, we could lower this [monetary] score" within the entire rating, it said. S&P declined to comment. (S&Pはコメント拒否)