中国株式市場のバブル崩壊に備え外人が資金を引き揚げているという記事。
2007年12月9日（日）のワシントンポスト記事のオリジナル。中国株式市場のバブル崩壊寸前でファンドマネージャーが資金を引き揚げているとかの記事。見つけました。Hot Chinese Stocks Getting Cold Shoulder -Fund Managers In U.S. Fear Bubble Will BurstBy Daisy Maxey Dow Jones Newswires Sunday, December 9, 2007; Page F06 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/07/AR2007120702761.htmlNEW YORK -- Mutual fund managers have had a good run with Chinese stocks, but some managers are backing off now, saying China's market is a bubble that will burst sooner rather than later. The Chinese market appears to be in the "later, waning stages of a bubble," said Justin Leverenz, manager of the nearly $13.5 billion Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund. The fund is now "extraordinarily lean" in exposure to Chinese stocks, he said. Leverenz, who looks to double the fund's investment over the next three to five years, said he expects that "a significant contraction" in the valuation of Chinese equities will play out much more rapidly than that time period. He noted that China's domestic A shares have risen nearly 500 percent over the past two years. He predicts that "2008 will be an incredibly difficult year for Chinese equities." Other fund managers agree and are pulling money out of Chinese shares, though a few said they're still finding buys in select H shares, those of China-registered companies listed on Hong Kong's stock exchange. Antoine van Agtmael, chief investment officer of Emerging Markets Management, who is credited with coining the term "emerging markets" in 1981, said China's booming economic story is real, but its stock markets have been bought up in a mania. Van Agtmael said he reduced his investments in China a while ago, likely a mistake because it was too early. Though he still believes China's story is a good one, he said, "I don't trust this phenomenal rise in the A share market and now the H share market at all." Both markets are in a bubble, and "like all bubbles, it will end in tears," van Agtmael said. "I believe this is going to be sooner rather than later." Uri Landesman of ING Investment Management agreed that China is a great long-term story, but said "it's a great long-term story with a lot of volatility." One sign of the froth: Six of the 10 top-performing mutual funds this year through Nov. 30 have China in their names, fund tracker Morningstar said. Among them are AIM China A, which has a total return of 86.12 percent in the period; Nationwide China Opportunities A, which has gained 83.43 percent in the period; and Matthews China, which has gained 75.83 percent, Morningstar said. The mania appears to be waning, however. Brad Durham, managing director at fund tracker EPFR Global, said that inflows to dedicated China funds and greater China funds, which can invest in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan companies that are doing most of their business in China, have not been as excessive as they were last year. The China-dedicated equity funds that the firm tracks, which do not include the domestic mutual funds in China open only to Chinese investors, had outflows of $3.43 billion this year through Nov. 28, while Greater China funds had inflows of $2.95 billion in the period, Durham said. The Greater China funds are a bit more diversified, which likely makes investors more comfortable, he said. Van Agtmael said there are fundamental concerns. China's economic growth, which had been 8 percent to 10 percent on average for the last 20 years, is now more than 11 percent, a level he said could not be sustained. Inflationary pressures are being seen, he said. Consumer prices rose more than 6 percent in August and September. "Inflation will continue to be higher than people expect so that the Central Bank will at some point be forced to act a little more forcefully than they have this far when they've acted rather feebly," he said. It's quite possible that China's market may decline by 70 percent, van Agtmael said. The Chinese government created turbulence in Hong Kong stocks this year with its announcement that mainland Chinese would be able to invest directly in Hong Kong stocks. That plan has been delayed. It's part of the reason the H share market rose so much, said van Agtmael, but its impact is likely to be disappointing. Some expected that Chinese retail investors "could now invest more or less in an unlimited fashion in Hong Kong," and expected that that would present an arbitrage opportunity, he said. "I don't believe that ever was the intention; the intention is to take a little pressure of the A share market in a controlled way." Leverenz noted that there's a huge amount of excess savings trapped onshore in China and insufficient assets to absorb it. More than $2 trillion in U.S. dollars is in Chinese bank accounts earning negative real interest rates, he said. As a result, money has piled into risky assets, and prices are extraordinary, he said. For a number of reasons, this bubble will pop reasonably soon, he said. With the rest of the world slowing, China is going to face a situation where the external environment isn't good, he said. China's currency also needs to appreciate, and will do so over the next couple of years, he said. Landesman of ING said that while a U.S. or global slowdown will have less impact on China's economy now than it would have had in the last cycle, it will still have an effect. "If there's a global economic slowdown, it's not good for anybody," he said.
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