ウォーレン・バフェット氏「私は米国株を買っている。次は日本株だ！」
ウォーレン・バフェット氏「私は米国株を買っている。次は日本株だ！」とはまだ言ってません。言って欲しいね。以下まじめな話し。「私は米国株を買っている」、投資家バフェット氏、米紙に投資姿勢寄稿。2008/10/18, 日本経済新聞 朝刊 「私は米国株を買っている」――。米著名投資家のウォーレン・バフェット氏＝写真はロイター＝は十七日付のニューヨーク・タイムズ紙への寄稿で、自身のこんな投資姿勢を明らかにした。「短期的な動きがどうなるかはわからないが、投資家心理や経済の状況が改善する前に（株価など）市場は上向く」と予測している。 同氏は、傘下の投資会社ではなく、自分の資金で米国株を買っていると前置き。その上で「投資のルールはシンプルで、他の人が欲張っているときには恐れを抱き、他の人が恐怖にさいなまれている時に強欲になることだ」とした。バフェットの憂国の士としての気持ちでしょう。日本で言うと澤上ファンドのオトッツァン。おっさん早く買いすぎて今お金がない。1兆円頂戴とエコノミストで叫んでいたね。以下New York Timesのオリジナル記事です。↓----------------------------------------------------------------Buy American. I Am. （僕：過去にも不況のときはアメリカ人は他国の製品を買わないでアメリカの 製品を買おうというキャンペーンがいつもありました。そのキャンペーンを バイアメリカン政策と呼んでました。ここでは米国株のこと。）By WARREN E. BUFFETTPublished: October 16, 2008 OmahaTHE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.（アメリカも、海外も金融の世界は混沌としている。。。）So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.（これまで僕個人の口座には米国債以外は何もなかった。この話しはBerkshire Hathaway とは無関係の話しだから注意して聞いて欲しいが、相場の推移をみながらも 今後は僕の個人的な証券口座はすべて米国株になってなっていることでしょう）Why?A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month ? or a year ? from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. ↑大恐慌のとき、ダウは1932年の7月8日に大底をつけた。そしてフランクリン・ルーズベルトが1933年3月に大統領として仕事開始したときにはNYの相場は大底からもう30%上昇してた。）（俺：ハドソン川に飛び込んだ人間が一番多かったのは1932年。俺は昔図書館で 調べました。日本のバブル崩壊後、隅田川に飛びこんで死んだ人間はたったの一人も いない。日興證券本社のそばの橋から若者達がふざけて飛び込んで死んだが一人いるけどOr think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. （第2次対戦中でも相場の大底は1942年の春だった）（俺；そうなんよね。1942年、1943年にもうハリウッドの名作があったのには 驚いた。イギリスでも映画製作されていた。） Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price. Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts. Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities. Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company. October 17, 2008, on page A33 of the New York edition.
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